Chinese leader Xi Jinping has instructed his military to be prepared to invade Taiwan in 2027, but the CIA’s belief is that he has “doubts” about whether this is an attainable goal.
The United States has to take Xi’s ambitions about reunification with Taiwan, the self-governing island of roughly 23 million people, “very seriously,” CIA Director William Burns warned during a Sunday interview on CBS.
“We do know, as has been made public, that President Xi has instructed the PLA, the Chinese military leadership, to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan, but that doesn’t mean that he’s decided to invade in 2027 or any other year as well. I think our judgment, at least, is that President Xi and his military leadership have doubts today about whether they could accomplish that invasion,” Burns said.
A factor in Xi’s calculations, as Burns described, is Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has been a disaster for Moscow as the country had been expected to take Kyiv and overthrow the government within a matter of days but faced significant resistance, its own self-inflicted problems, and a more united West than anticipated.
“It’s conceivable, but I think there’s no foreign leader who’s watched more carefully Vladimir Putin’s experience in Ukraine, the evolution of the war, than Xi Jinping has. And I think, in many ways, he’s been unsettled and sobered by what he’s seen. I think he was surprised by the very poor military performance of the Russians,” he said. “I think surprised also by the degree of Western solidarity and support of Ukraine. In other words, the willingness of not just the United States, but our European allies as well to absorb a certain amount of economic cost in the interest of inflicting greater economic damage on Russia over time. So all of that, I think, has sobered Xi Jinping to some extent.”
Russia’s failures in Ukraine likely “reinforced” some doubts from Beijing about its capabilities to take Taiwan, Burns said, warning that while conflict was not inevitable, “a potential use of force probably grow the further into this decade you get and beyond it, into the following decade as well.”
The Pentagon’s assessment is that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not imminent, though there are some in the department who believe the minority opinion. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin called China’s behavior toward Taiwan “very provocative,” though he noted he “seriously doubt[s]” an invasion is “imminent,” he said in a press conference last month.
He also reaffirmed comments from various Biden administration officials who have warned over the last couple of weeks that Beijing is considering providing lethal aid to Russia for its war. Beijing has, over the course of the war, attempted to play a peacemaker role in the conflict while also supporting the Kremlin.
Burns said the U.S. is “confident” in the assessment, though he, like the other officials, pointed out that the U.S. has not yet seen Beijing provide such aid to Russia, only that the country is considering it.
The administration has publicized downgraded intelligence regarding possible actions in the war in a preemptive attempt to stop the adversary from committing the action, and this is the latest example of such decision-making. Burns said the administration does it to “deter” Beijing because “it would be a very risky and unwise bet.”
“I think the Chinese are also trying to weigh the consequences of, you know, what the concerns we’ve expressed are, you know, about providing lethal equipment as well,” he added. “And weighing carefully, you know, where’s the point at which, you know, they would run into some pretty serious consequences, and that’s what we’ve tried to make clear.”
Beijing has pushed back on America’s claim that it is considering providing lethal aid to Russia.